Scenario technique
Develop future scenarios for your industry
Description
The scenario technique helps to develop future scenarios for a specific subject area, e.g., your industry. This involves taking a look at influencing factors and considering how they might develop in the future.
Example
The R&D department of an automobile manufacturer wants to develop future scenarios for the car. Possible influencing factors are, for example, political conditions and drive systems. Regarding the political conditions, it is predicted that gasoline engines could be banned. With regard to drive systems, a trend toward more energy-efficient solutions is seen. Consequently, one scenario describes the ban of gasoline engines and a trend towards more energy-efficient drive systems. Strategic measures to counteract this scenario are the switch to electric motors and the development of better batteries that enable electric cars to have a longer range.
Instructions
1. Describe the topic for which you want to develop a scenario (e.g. "Automobile industry").
2. Start an IdeaClouds workshop with the scenario technique
3. Invite participants
4. In the first step, let the team brainstorm influencing factors.
5. After the following steps, let the team brainstorm opportunities for each influencing factor.
6. In the final step, the team should develop different future scenarios by combining the development possibilities of the influencing factors in different ways.
7. Afterwards, you can start an IdeaClouds follow-up workshop for each scenario to develop appropriate actions.